I confess to being somewhat uncertain about the first - but I suspect that the majority will find themselves taking either portable skills (programmers, medics, lorry drivers...) or moderate liquid assets (a six-figure sum in something stable like ... I dunno, given Trump - New Zealand Dollars, maybe?) to anywhere that will take them, and mostly winding up in the nearer parts of the EU and those ex-British-colonies where the indigenous population was largely exterminated (inc USA). Being white-skinned will probably ease things enough that the assimilation will be relatively unopposed, especially in those countries that are currently in flat-out racist extremism mode. Because that allows them to say "see, we're not opposed to NICE immigrants, it's just those [insert slur here]". And thus also stave off the crisis that zero-immigration policies rather obviously and inevitably brings for a few more years while still being racist as f*ck.
On the second... Have you looked at office and house prices in Frankfurt over the last couple of years? There's been a lot of activity since the referendum result, and while the UK's politicians might be more interested in party than country, our banks are more interested in (their own) financial benefit than either. Several companies have openly talked about moving substantial parts of their operations to Germany, and there seems to be a widespread opinion in the general financial community that ALL the big UK banks started making preparations for a hard brexit towards the end of 2017, once it was obvious that the current government were simply going to bluster and do nothing. I'm not in the industry, but someone is buying/renting all those offices, and they're not doing it on a whim. My suspicion is that at least some of the UK finance sector is basically building turn-key replacement offices around Deutsche Börse, but I need to emphasize that this is pure speculation on my part. Vaguely informed by knowing a bit about the way big banks work, and by the shape of the things they're saying and not saying, but nonetheless speculation conducted by someone who doesn't work in the industry and has no inside knowledge.
Even so, I'd probably expect a global financial shock; probably something on the same scale as 2007/8, but with much less in the way of intelligent response. 2007/8 could have been handled much better, but could also have been much worse. The EU will probably handle things in much the same way; perhaps a little better if we're hopeful? The USA will handle things considerably worse, replacing a correct-but-inadequate reaction with a massive push in the wrong direction. The UK will presumably collapse, financially speaking, but that's likely to get lost a bit in the total collapse of civil society, I'd think.
As for the eventual outcome in terms of UK governance... welcome to the singularity. Actually, singularity is probably not quite right; non-linearity might be better - if we knew the precise state of every variable, it might be possible to predict the outcome. But whether we get the dictatorship of Mad King Morgan or a federation of a dozen functional interdependent statelets might depend on something as trivial as what colour tie the anchor on Channel Four's evening news wears that day. (That's flippant, but... not as far from true as I'd like.)
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dancing_serpent
(no subject)
Date: 2018-06-15 08:50 pm (UTC)On the second... Have you looked at office and house prices in Frankfurt over the last couple of years? There's been a lot of activity since the referendum result, and while the UK's politicians might be more interested in party than country, our banks are more interested in (their own) financial benefit than either. Several companies have openly talked about moving substantial parts of their operations to Germany, and there seems to be a widespread opinion in the general financial community that ALL the big UK banks started making preparations for a hard brexit towards the end of 2017, once it was obvious that the current government were simply going to bluster and do nothing. I'm not in the industry, but someone is buying/renting all those offices, and they're not doing it on a whim. My suspicion is that at least some of the UK finance sector is basically building turn-key replacement offices around Deutsche Börse, but I need to emphasize that this is pure speculation on my part. Vaguely informed by knowing a bit about the way big banks work, and by the shape of the things they're saying and not saying, but nonetheless speculation conducted by someone who doesn't work in the industry and has no inside knowledge.
Even so, I'd probably expect a global financial shock; probably something on the same scale as 2007/8, but with much less in the way of intelligent response. 2007/8 could have been handled much better, but could also have been much worse. The EU will probably handle things in much the same way; perhaps a little better if we're hopeful? The USA will handle things considerably worse, replacing a correct-but-inadequate reaction with a massive push in the wrong direction. The UK will presumably collapse, financially speaking, but that's likely to get lost a bit in the total collapse of civil society, I'd think.
As for the eventual outcome in terms of UK governance... welcome to the singularity. Actually, singularity is probably not quite right; non-linearity might be better - if we knew the precise state of every variable, it might be possible to predict the outcome. But whether we get the dictatorship of Mad King Morgan or a federation of a dozen functional interdependent statelets might depend on something as trivial as what colour tie the anchor on Channel Four's evening news wears that day. (That's flippant, but... not as far from true as I'd like.)